Mes Soongoun 0–1 Mes Kerman: Result & Stats

Mes Soongoun

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Mes Kerman

9/23/2025

Azadegan League · Round 5Bonyan Diesel Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Soongoun35%

×Draw34%

Mes Kerman31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes SoongounExpected goals in this matchMes Kerman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.89

0.82

Mes Soongoun

0.89

Mes Kerman

0.82

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 116 away

1.08

creates per match

0.78

0.86

allows per match

0.69

creates per match

Mes Soongoun

1.08

Mes Kerman

0.78

allows per match

Mes Soongoun

0.86

Mes Kerman

0.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under75
Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Mes Kerman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–018%

0–115%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–16%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (18%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

82%18%1.5

51%49%2.5

25%75%3.5

9%91%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw

69%

Mes Soongoun or Mes Kerman

66%

Draw or Mes Kerman

65%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+

12%

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals

59%

Mes Soongoun 2+ goals

22%

Mes Soongoun 3+ goals

6%

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

56%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

20%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)

53%

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 116 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Mes Kerman defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.89

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more

35%

level

34%

Mes Kerman scores more

31%

Mes Soongoun at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff