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Mes Soongoun vs Fajr Sepasi — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Fajr Sepasi
Fajr Sepasi
12/13/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Soongoun35%
×Draw32%
Fajr Sepasi34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Soongoun
0.97
Fajr Sepasi
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 50 home / 98 away

creates per match

Mes Soongoun
1.08
Fajr Sepasi
1.03

allows per match

Mes Soongoun
0.86
Fajr Sepasi
0.86

finishing

Mes Soongoun+0.00on par
Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Soongoun ↓

Fajr Sepasi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–114%
0–27%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Soongoun or draw
66%
Mes Soongoun or Fajr Sepasi
68%
Draw or Fajr Sepasi
65%

Winning margin

Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
13%
Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
62%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
25%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
7%
Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals
61%
Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals
25%
Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
51%
Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Soongoun at home — creates 1.08, concedes 0.86 · 50 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Soongoun attack 1.08 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Mes Soongoun defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Mes Soongoun scores more
35%
level
32%
Fajr Sepasi scores more
34%

Mes Soongoun at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Mes Soongoun will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Soongoun 0–3 Fajr Sepasi

Fajr Sepasi beat Mes Soongoun 3-0 in Azadegan League on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Yadegar-e-Emam Stadium in Tabriz.