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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Van Pars Isfahan — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Van Pars Isfahan
Van Pars Isfahan
3/4/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak51%
×Draw32%
Van Pars Isfahan18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.16
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 107% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 16 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Van Pars Isfahan
0.56

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Van Pars Isfahan
1.19

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Van Pars Isfahan+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

71%No
  • No71
  • Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Van Pars Isfahan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
82%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Van Pars Isfahan
68%
Draw or Van Pars Isfahan
49%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
22%
Van Pars Isfahan wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
69%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
32%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
11%
Van Pars Isfahan 1+ goals
43%
Van Pars Isfahan 2+ goals
11%
Van Pars Isfahan 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
74%
Van Pars Isfahan (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Van Pars Isfahan away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Van Pars Isfahan defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.16

Van Pars Isfahan attack 0.56 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
51%
level
32%
Van Pars Isfahan scores more
18%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Van Pars Isfahan

Mes Shahr-e Babak beat Van Pars Isfahan 2-0 in Azadegan League on March 4, 2023.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium in Shahrbabak.