Mes Shahr-e Babak 2–0 Shahrdari Astara

Mes Shahr-e Babak

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Shahrdari Astara

10/23/2024

Azadegan League · Round 8Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak61%

×Draw27%

Shahrdari Astara12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes Shahr-e BabakExpected goals in this matchShahrdari Astara

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

0.48

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1.42

Shahrdari Astara

0.48

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 196% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

1.13

creates per match

0.40

0.55

allows per match

1.71

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1.13

Shahrdari Astara

0.40

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.55

Shahrdari Astara

1.71

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Shahrdari Astara →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–110%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–015%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw

88%

Mes Shahr-e Babak or Shahrdari Astara

73%

Draw or Shahrdari Astara

39%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

31%

Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

76%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

41%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

17%

Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals

38%

Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals

8%

Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

83%

Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.42

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

61%

level

27%

Shahrdari Astara scores more

12%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff