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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Shahin Bushehr — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Shahin Bushehr
Shahin Bushehr
4/18/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak45%
×Draw33%
Shahin Bushehr22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.04
Shahin Bushehr
0.62

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 68% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 48 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Shahin Bushehr
0.69

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Shahin Bushehr
0.96

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Shahin Bushehr+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Shahin Bushehr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
78%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Shahin Bushehr
67%
Draw or Shahin Bushehr
55%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
18%
Shahin Bushehr wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
65%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
28%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
9%
Shahin Bushehr 1+ goals
46%
Shahin Bushehr 2+ goals
13%
Shahin Bushehr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
68%
Shahin Bushehr (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Shahin Bushehr away — creates 0.69, concedes 0.96 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Shahin Bushehr defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.04

Shahin Bushehr attack 0.69 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
45%
level
33%
Shahin Bushehr scores more
22%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Shahr-e Babak 2–1 Shahin Bushehr

Mes Shahr-e Babak beat Shahin Bushehr 2-1 in Azadegan League on April 18, 2022.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Shahrbabak Stadium in Shahrbabak.