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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Niroye Zamini — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Niroye Zamini
Niroye Zamini
A. Valizadeh 77', 42', 32'
A. Jabbari 11'
5/18/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Sardar Soleimani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 49+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak46%
×Draw32%
Niroye Zamini22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.10
Niroye Zamini
0.67

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 64% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Niroye Zamini
0.78

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Niroye Zamini
1.08

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Niroye Zamini+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Niroye Zamini →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
78%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Niroye Zamini
68%
Draw or Niroye Zamini
54%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
19%
Niroye Zamini wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
67%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
30%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
10%
Niroye Zamini 1+ goals
49%
Niroye Zamini 2+ goals
15%
Niroye Zamini 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
67%
Niroye Zamini (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Niroye Zamini away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.08 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Niroye Zamini defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.10

Niroye Zamini attack 0.78 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
46%
level
32%
Niroye Zamini scores more
22%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
A. Jabbari
32'
A. Valizadeh
42'
A. Valizadeh
77'
A. Valizadeh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Niroye Zamini

Mes Shahr-e Babak beat Niroye Zamini 4-1 in Azadegan League on May 18, 2025.

Goals: A. Jabbari (11'), A. Valizadeh (32', 42', 77').

The match was played at Sardar Soleimani Stadium in Shahr-e Babak.