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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
11/2/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Sardar Soleimani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak46%
×Draw31%
Naft Masjed Soleyman23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.17
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.74

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 58% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 34 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.94

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.21

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
77%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Naft Masjed Soleyman
69%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
54%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
20%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
69%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
33%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
11%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
52%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
17%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
66%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.21 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.17

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.94 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
46%
level
31%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
23%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Naft Masjed Soleyman

Mes Shahr-e Babak and Naft Masjed Soleyman drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on November 2, 2023.

The match was played at Sardar Soleimani Stadium in Shahrebabak.