Mes Shahr-e Babak 2–0 Naft Gachsaran

Mes Shahr-e Babak

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Naft Gachsaran

10/10/2024

Azadegan League · Round 6Sardar Soleimani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak46%

×Draw32%

Naft Gachsaran22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes Shahr-e BabakExpected goals in this matchNaft Gachsaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

0.68

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1.13

Naft Gachsaran

0.68

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 66% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

1.13

creates per match

0.80

0.55

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak

1.13

Naft Gachsaran

0.80

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak

0.55

Naft Gachsaran

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par

Naft Gachsaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under73
Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Naft Gachsaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–22%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

54%46%2.5

27%73%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw

78%

Mes Shahr-e Babak or Naft Gachsaran

68%

Draw or Naft Gachsaran

54%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+

20%

Naft Gachsaran wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals

68%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals

31%

Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals

11%

Naft Gachsaran 1+ goals

49%

Naft Gachsaran 2+ goals

15%

Naft Gachsaran 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)

68%

Naft Gachsaran (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Naft Gachsaran away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.14 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Naft Gachsaran defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.13

Naft Gachsaran attack 0.80 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more

46%

level

32%

Naft Gachsaran scores more

22%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff