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Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Ario Eslamshahr — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Shahr-e Babak
Mes Shahr-e Babak
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Ario Eslamshahr
Ario Eslamshahr
A. Karbalaei 50'
A. Valizadeh 45' (pen)
M. Balooli 59'
A. Ghezel 54'
2/6/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Sardar Soleimani Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mes Shahr-e Babak42%
×Draw34%
Ario Eslamshahr24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.98
Ario Eslamshahr
0.67

Mes Shahr-e Babak creates 46% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
1.13
Ario Eslamshahr
0.78

allows per match

Mes Shahr-e Babak
0.55
Ario Eslamshahr
0.84

finishing

Mes Shahr-e Babak+0.00on par
Ario Eslamshahr+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Shahr-e Babak ↓

Ario Eslamshahr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–113%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
49%51%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Shahr-e Babak or draw
76%
Mes Shahr-e Babak or Ario Eslamshahr
66%
Draw or Ario Eslamshahr
58%

Winning margin

Mes Shahr-e Babak wins by 2+
16%
Ario Eslamshahr wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Shahr-e Babak 1+ goals
62%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 2+ goals
26%
Mes Shahr-e Babak 3+ goals
8%
Ario Eslamshahr 1+ goals
49%
Ario Eslamshahr 2+ goals
15%
Ario Eslamshahr 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Shahr-e Babak (draw refunded)
63%
Ario Eslamshahr (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Shahr-e Babak at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.55 · 83 matches

Ario Eslamshahr away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Shahr-e Babak attack 1.13 + Ario Eslamshahr defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 0.98

Ario Eslamshahr attack 0.78 + Mes Shahr-e Babak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Mes Shahr-e Babak scores more
42%
level
34%
Ario Eslamshahr scores more
24%

Mes Shahr-e Babak at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Mes Shahr-e Babak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'
A. ValizadehPenalty
50'
A. Karbalaei
54'
A. Ghezel
59'
M. Balooli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Shahr-e Babak vs Ario Eslamshahr

Mes Shahr-e Babak and Ario Eslamshahr drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on February 6, 2025.

Goals: A. Valizadeh (45' pen), A. Karbalaei (50'), A. Ghezel (54'), M. Balooli (59').

The match was played at Sardar Soleimani Stadium in Shahr-e Babak.