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Mes Rafsanjan vs Shams Azar Qazvin — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Shams Azar Qazvin
Shams Azar Qazvin
9/19/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 4Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan37%
×Draw32%
Shams Azar Qazvin30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
0.99
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.86

Mes Rafsanjan creates 15% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 41 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Shams Azar Qazvin
0.78

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Shams Azar Qazvin
1.07

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Shams Azar Qazvin+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Under
  • Under72
  • Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Shams Azar Qazvin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–114%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
28%72%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
70%
Mes Rafsanjan or Shams Azar Qazvin
68%
Draw or Shams Azar Qazvin
63%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
14%
Shams Azar Qazvin wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
63%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
26%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
8%
Shams Azar Qazvin 1+ goals
58%
Shams Azar Qazvin 2+ goals
21%
Shams Azar Qazvin 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
55%
Shams Azar Qazvin (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Shams Azar Qazvin away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Shams Azar Qazvin defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.99

Shams Azar Qazvin attack 0.78 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
37%
level
32%
Shams Azar Qazvin scores more
30%

Mes Rafsanjan at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Shams Azar Qazvin

Mes Rafsanjan and Shams Azar Qazvin drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on September 19, 2025.

The match was played at Shohadaye Sanat Mes Stadium in Tafresh.