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Mes Rafsanjan vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
9/21/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan69%
×Draw19%
Shahrdari Tabriz12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
2.16
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.78

Mes Rafsanjan creates 177% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.81
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
88%
Mes Rafsanjan or Shahrdari Tabriz
81%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
31%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
45%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
88%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
63%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
36%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
54%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
18%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
85%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.81 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.16

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
69%
level
19%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
12%

Mes Rafsanjan at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Shahrdari Tabriz

Mes Rafsanjan beat Shahrdari Tabriz 1-0 in Azadegan League on September 21, 2019.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.