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Mes Rafsanjan vs Sepidrood Rasht — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 0
Sepidrood Rasht
Sepidrood Rasht
1/8/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 18Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan59%
×Draw24%
Sepidrood Rasht17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.70
Sepidrood Rasht
0.79

Mes Rafsanjan creates 115% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.81
Sepidrood Rasht
0.59

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Sepidrood Rasht
1.59

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Sepidrood Rasht+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Sepidrood Rasht →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
83%
Mes Rafsanjan or Sepidrood Rasht
76%
Draw or Sepidrood Rasht
41%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
33%
Sepidrood Rasht wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
82%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
51%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
24%
Sepidrood Rasht 1+ goals
55%
Sepidrood Rasht 2+ goals
19%
Sepidrood Rasht 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
77%
Sepidrood Rasht (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Sepidrood Rasht away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.81 + Sepidrood Rasht defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.70

Sepidrood Rasht attack 0.59 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
59%
level
24%
Sepidrood Rasht scores more
17%

Mes Rafsanjan at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Sepidrood Rasht

Mes Rafsanjan beat Sepidrood Rasht 1-0 in Azadegan League on January 8, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.