Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Rafsanjan vs Sepahan FC — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Sepahan FC
Sepahan FC
12/8/2024Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 11Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan27%
×Draw30%
Sepahan FC43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
0.86
Sepahan FC
1.16

Sepahan FC creates 35% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 115 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Sepahan FC
1.38

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Sepahan FC
0.82

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Sepahan FC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Sepahan FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–115%
0–29%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
57%
Mes Rafsanjan or Sepahan FC
70%
Draw or Sepahan FC
73%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
9%
Sepahan FC wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
58%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
21%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
6%
Sepahan FC 1+ goals
69%
Sepahan FC 2+ goals
32%
Sepahan FC 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
39%
Sepahan FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Sepahan FC away — creates 1.38, concedes 0.82 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Sepahan FC defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.86

Sepahan FC attack 1.38 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
27%
level
30%
Sepahan FC scores more
43%

Sepahan FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Sepahan FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Rafsanjan 0–3 Sepahan FC

Sepahan FC beat Mes Rafsanjan 3-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on December 8, 2024.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.