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Mes Rafsanjan vs Qashqai Shiraz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 2
Qashqai Shiraz
Qashqai Shiraz
1/19/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 20Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan51%
×Draw26%
Qashqai Shiraz23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.52
Qashqai Shiraz
0.91

Mes Rafsanjan creates 67% more chances

Season form · 31 home / 68 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.74
Qashqai Shiraz
0.81

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Qashqai Shiraz
1.29

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Qashqai Shiraz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Qashqai Shiraz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
77%
Mes Rafsanjan or Qashqai Shiraz
74%
Draw or Qashqai Shiraz
49%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
26%
Qashqai Shiraz wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
78%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
45%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
20%
Qashqai Shiraz 1+ goals
60%
Qashqai Shiraz 2+ goals
23%
Qashqai Shiraz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
69%
Qashqai Shiraz (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.00 · 31 matches

Qashqai Shiraz away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.29 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.74 + Qashqai Shiraz defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.52

Qashqai Shiraz attack 0.81 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
51%
level
26%
Qashqai Shiraz scores more
23%

Mes Rafsanjan at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Rafsanjan 1–2 Qashqai Shiraz

Qashqai Shiraz beat Mes Rafsanjan 2-1 in Azadegan League on January 19, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.