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Mes Rafsanjan vs Oxin Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
3 – 2
Oxin Alborz
Oxin Alborz
7/18/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan57%
×Draw24%
Oxin Alborz19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.69
Oxin Alborz
0.86

Mes Rafsanjan creates 97% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 49 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.81
Oxin Alborz
0.73

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Oxin Alborz
1.57

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Oxin Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Oxin Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
81%
Mes Rafsanjan or Oxin Alborz
76%
Draw or Oxin Alborz
43%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
32%
Oxin Alborz wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
82%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
50%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
24%
Oxin Alborz 1+ goals
58%
Oxin Alborz 2+ goals
21%
Oxin Alborz 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
75%
Oxin Alborz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Oxin Alborz away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.57 · 49 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.81 + Oxin Alborz defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.69

Oxin Alborz attack 0.73 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
57%
level
24%
Oxin Alborz scores more
19%

Mes Rafsanjan at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Oxin Alborz

Mes Rafsanjan beat Oxin Alborz 3-2 in Azadegan League on July 18, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.