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Mes Rafsanjan vs Navad Urmia — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
3 – 1
Navad Urmia
Navad Urmia
M. Avakh 78'
M. Rezaei 74'
M. Azarbad 27'
A. Abbasi 62'
12/6/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 16Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan54%
×Draw28%
Navad Urmia19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.40
Navad Urmia
0.70

Mes Rafsanjan creates 100% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 46 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.70
Navad Urmia
0.39

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Navad Urmia
1.09

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Navad Urmia+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Navad Urmia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
81%
Mes Rafsanjan or Navad Urmia
72%
Draw or Navad Urmia
46%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
27%
Navad Urmia wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
75%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
41%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
17%
Navad Urmia 1+ goals
50%
Navad Urmia 2+ goals
16%
Navad Urmia 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
74%
Navad Urmia (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Navad Urmia away — creates 0.39, concedes 1.09 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.70 + Navad Urmia defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.40

Navad Urmia attack 0.39 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.70

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
54%
level
28%
Navad Urmia scores more
19%

Mes Rafsanjan at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

27'
M. Azarbad
62'
A. Abbasi
68'
74'
M. Rezaei
78'
M. Avakh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Rafsanjan 3–1 Navad Urmia

Mes Rafsanjan beat Navad Urmia 3-1 in Azadegan League on December 6, 2019.

Goals: M. Azarbad (27'), A. Abbasi (62'), M. Rezaei (74'), M. Avakh (78').

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.