Mes Rafsanjan 1–1 Nassaji Mazandaran

Mes Rafsanjan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Nassaji Mazandaran

1/19/2023

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 16Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan39%

×Draw31%

Nassaji Mazandaran30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes RafsanjanExpected goals in this matchNassaji Mazandaran

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.89

Mes Rafsanjan

1.06

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.89

Mes Rafsanjan creates 19% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 105 away

0.91

creates per match

0.83

0.94

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan

0.91

Nassaji Mazandaran

0.83

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan

0.94

Nassaji Mazandaran

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Nassaji Mazandaran+0.00on par

Total goals

Under69
Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No61
Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Nassaji Mazandaran →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

58%42%2.5

31%69%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw

70%

Mes Rafsanjan or Nassaji Mazandaran

69%

Draw or Nassaji Mazandaran

61%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

15%

Nassaji Mazandaran wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

65%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

29%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

9%

Nassaji Mazandaran 1+ goals

59%

Nassaji Mazandaran 2+ goals

22%

Nassaji Mazandaran 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

57%

Nassaji Mazandaran (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Nassaji Mazandaran away — creates 0.83, concedes 1.21 · 105 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Nassaji Mazandaran defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Nassaji Mazandaran attack 0.83 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

39%

level

31%

Nassaji Mazandaran scores more

30%

Mes Rafsanjan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff