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Mes Rafsanjan vs Naft Masjed Soleyman — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Naft Masjed Soleyman
Naft Masjed Soleyman
4/6/2023Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 25Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 74+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan44%
×Draw32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.08
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.69

Mes Rafsanjan creates 57% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 74 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.91
Naft Masjed Soleyman
0.45

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
0.94
Naft Masjed Soleyman
1.26

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Naft Masjed Soleyman+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Naft Masjed Soleyman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
77%
Mes Rafsanjan or Naft Masjed Soleyman
68%
Draw or Naft Masjed Soleyman
56%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
18%
Naft Masjed Soleyman wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
66%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
29%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
10%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 1+ goals
50%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 2+ goals
15%
Naft Masjed Soleyman 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
66%
Naft Masjed Soleyman (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Naft Masjed Soleyman away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.26 · 74 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Naft Masjed Soleyman defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.08

Naft Masjed Soleyman attack 0.45 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
44%
level
32%
Naft Masjed Soleyman scores more
23%

Mes Rafsanjan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Rafsanjan 1–0 Naft Masjed Soleyman

Mes Rafsanjan beat Naft Masjed Soleyman 1-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on April 6, 2023.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.