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Mes Rafsanjan vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 1
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
H. Golzari 42'
B. Rashid Farrokhi 68'
10/30/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan44%
×Draw29%
Mes Kerman27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.21
Mes Kerman
0.88

Mes Rafsanjan creates 38% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 102 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.70
Mes Kerman
0.76

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Mes Kerman
0.72

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–111%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
73%
Mes Rafsanjan or Mes Kerman
71%
Draw or Mes Kerman
56%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
19%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
70%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
34%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
12%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
59%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
22%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
62%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.76, concedes 0.72 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.70 + Mes Kerman defence 0.72 → ÷2 → 1.21

Mes Kerman attack 0.76 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
44%
level
29%
Mes Kerman scores more
27%

Mes Rafsanjan at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
H. Golzari
68'
B. Rashid Farrokhi
90'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Mes Kerman

Mes Rafsanjan and Mes Kerman drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on October 30, 2019.

Goals: H. Golzari (42'), B. Rashid Farrokhi (68').

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.