Mes Rafsanjan 1–1 Malavan: Result & Stats

Mes Rafsanjan

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Malavan

10/25/2024

Persian Gulf Pro League · Round 9Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan40%

×Draw32%

Malavan28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes RafsanjanExpected goals in this matchMalavan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

0.81

Mes Rafsanjan

1.02

Malavan

0.81

Mes Rafsanjan creates 26% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 54 away

0.91

creates per match

0.69

0.94

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan

0.91

Malavan

0.69

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan

0.94

Malavan

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Malavan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Malavan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw

72%

Mes Rafsanjan or Malavan

68%

Draw or Malavan

60%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+

15%

Malavan wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals

64%

Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals

27%

Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals

8%

Malavan 1+ goals

56%

Malavan 2+ goals

19%

Malavan 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)

58%

Malavan (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches

Malavan away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.13 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Malavan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.02

Malavan attack 0.69 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more

40%

level

32%

Malavan scores more

28%

Mes Rafsanjan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Rafsanjan 1–1 Malavan

Mes Rafsanjan and Malavan drew 1-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 25, 2024.

The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.

Mes Rafsanjan vs Malavan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Persian Gulf Pro League: Mes Rafsanjan 1–1 Malavan