Mes Rafsanjan vs Fajr Sepasi — Persian Gulf Pro League 2025
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 27+ matches
Mes Rafsanjan41%
Fajr Sepasi27%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Mes Rafsanjan creates 35% more chances
Season form · 85 home / 27 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under72
- Over28
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No65
- Yes35
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Mes Rafsanjan ↓
Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 0.91, concedes 0.94 · 85 matches
Fajr Sepasi away — creates 0.63, concedes 1.19 · 27 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.91 + Fajr Sepasi defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.05
Fajr Sepasi attack 0.63 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.78
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 41%?"
Mes Rafsanjan at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 41% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
5 previous meetings
Sepahan FC
Esteghlal FC
Chadormalu SC
Gol Gohar
Tractor Sazi
Persepolis FC
Foolad FCFajr Sepasi
Kheybar Khorramabad
Malavan
Esteghlal Khuzestan
Paykan
Shams Azar Qazvin
Aluminium Arak
ZOB AhanMes RafsanjanIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Mes Rafsanjan host Fajr Sepasi on Tuesday, 3 May 2022 at 15:30. The match is part of the Persian Gulf Pro League 2025/2026 season.
Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Fajr Sepasi
Mes Rafsanjan beat Fajr Sepasi 2-1 in Persian Gulf Pro League on May 3, 2022.
Goals: A. Nabizadeh (16'), M. Aliyari (22'), G. Mensha (65').
The match was played at Shohada Mes Rafsanjan Stadium in Rafsanjan.