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Mes Rafsanjan vs Baderan Tehran — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Baderan Tehran
Baderan Tehran
8/16/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 34Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan45%
×Draw26%
Baderan Tehran29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.46
Baderan Tehran
1.11

Mes Rafsanjan creates 32% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.81
Baderan Tehran
1.22

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Baderan Tehran
1.10

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Baderan Tehran+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Baderan Tehran →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
47%53%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
71%
Mes Rafsanjan or Baderan Tehran
74%
Draw or Baderan Tehran
55%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
22%
Baderan Tehran wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
77%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
43%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
18%
Baderan Tehran 1+ goals
67%
Baderan Tehran 2+ goals
30%
Baderan Tehran 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
61%
Baderan Tehran (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Baderan Tehran away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.10 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.81 + Baderan Tehran defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.46

Baderan Tehran attack 1.22 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
45%
level
26%
Baderan Tehran scores more
29%

Mes Rafsanjan at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Baderan Tehran

Mes Rafsanjan and Baderan Tehran drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on August 16, 2020.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.