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Mes Rafsanjan vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
2 – 2
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
8/19/2018Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium (Rafsanjan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan58%
×Draw24%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.74
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.86

Mes Rafsanjan creates 102% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.81
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
0.73

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Arvand Khorramshahr FC
1.67

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Arvand Khorramshahr FC+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Arvand Khorramshahr FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
82%
Mes Rafsanjan or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
76%
Draw or Arvand Khorramshahr FC
42%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
33%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
82%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
52%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
25%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 1+ goals
58%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 2+ goals
21%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
76%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.81, concedes 1.00 · 32 matches

Arvand Khorramshahr FC away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.81 + Arvand Khorramshahr FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.74

Arvand Khorramshahr FC attack 0.73 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
58%
level
24%
Arvand Khorramshahr FC scores more
18%

Mes Rafsanjan at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Arvand Khorramshahr FC

Mes Rafsanjan and Arvand Khorramshahr FC drew 2-2 in Azadegan League on August 19, 2018.

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium (Rafsanjan).