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Mes Rafsanjan vs Arman Gohar — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
3 – 1
Arman Gohar
Arman Gohar
M. Azarbad 90+1'
H. Golzari 11'
M. Rezaei 6'
E. Kiani 60' (pen)
2/15/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 24Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan55%
×Draw24%
Arman Gohar21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.68
Arman Gohar
0.94

Mes Rafsanjan creates 79% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.90
Arman Gohar
0.87

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Arman Gohar
1.46

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Arman Gohar+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Arman Gohar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
79%
Mes Rafsanjan or Arman Gohar
76%
Draw or Arman Gohar
45%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
30%
Arman Gohar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
81%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
50%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
24%
Arman Gohar 1+ goals
61%
Arman Gohar 2+ goals
24%
Arman Gohar 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
72%
Arman Gohar (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Arman Gohar away — creates 0.87, concedes 1.46 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.90 + Arman Gohar defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.68

Arman Gohar attack 0.87 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
55%
level
24%
Arman Gohar scores more
21%

Mes Rafsanjan at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'
M. Rezaei
11'
H. Golzari
60'
E. KianiPenalty
90+1'
M. Azarbad

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Rafsanjan vs Arman Gohar

Mes Rafsanjan beat Arman Gohar 3-1 in Azadegan League on February 15, 2020.

Goals: M. Rezaei (6'), H. Golzari (11'), E. Kiani (60' pen), M. Azarbad (90+1').

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.