Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Rafsanjan vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
FT
1 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
M. Avakh 29'
A. Abolfazl 90+1'
2/28/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 26Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mes Rafsanjan40%
×Draw30%
Aluminium Arak30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Rafsanjan
1.13
Aluminium Arak
0.93

Mes Rafsanjan creates 22% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.70
Aluminium Arak
0.85

allows per match

Mes Rafsanjan
1.00
Aluminium Arak
0.55

finishing

Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Rafsanjan ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Mes Rafsanjan or draw
70%
Mes Rafsanjan or Aluminium Arak
70%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
60%

Winning margin

Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
17%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
68%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
31%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
11%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
61%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
24%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
57%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Rafsanjan at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Rafsanjan attack 1.70 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 1.13

Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Mes Rafsanjan scores more
40%
level
30%
Aluminium Arak scores more
30%

Mes Rafsanjan at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Mes Rafsanjan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

29'
M. Avakh
90+1'
A. Abolfazl

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Rafsanjan 1–1 Aluminium Arak

Mes Rafsanjan and Aluminium Arak drew 1-1 in Azadegan League on February 28, 2020.

Goals: M. Avakh (29'), A. Abolfazl (90+1').

The match was played at Shohadaye Noushabad Stadium in Rafsanjan.