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Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan — Persian Gulf Pro League 2018

Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Rafsanjan
Mes Rafsanjan
10/24/2025Persian Gulf Pro LeaguePersian Gulf Pro League · Round 8Imam Khomeini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Aluminium Arak38%
×Draw32%
Mes Rafsanjan30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Aluminium Arak
1.00
Mes Rafsanjan
0.86

Aluminium Arak creates 16% more chances

Season form · 85 home / 86 away

creates per match

Aluminium Arak
0.87
Mes Rafsanjan
0.93

allows per match

Aluminium Arak
0.79
Mes Rafsanjan
1.13

finishing

Aluminium Arak+0.00on par
Mes Rafsanjan+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aluminium Arak ↓

Mes Rafsanjan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Aluminium Arak or draw
70%
Aluminium Arak or Mes Rafsanjan
68%
Draw or Mes Rafsanjan
62%

Winning margin

Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
14%
Mes Rafsanjan wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
63%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
26%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
8%
Mes Rafsanjan 1+ goals
58%
Mes Rafsanjan 2+ goals
21%
Mes Rafsanjan 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
56%
Mes Rafsanjan (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aluminium Arak at home — creates 0.87, concedes 0.79 · 85 matches

Mes Rafsanjan away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.13 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aluminium Arak attack 0.87 + Mes Rafsanjan defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.00

Mes Rafsanjan attack 0.93 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Aluminium Arak scores more
38%
level
32%
Mes Rafsanjan scores more
30%

Aluminium Arak at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Aluminium Arak will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Aluminium Arak vs Mes Rafsanjan

Aluminium Arak and Mes Rafsanjan drew 0-0 in Persian Gulf Pro League on October 24, 2025.

The match was played at Imam Khomeini in Arak.