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Mes Kerman vs Vista Turbine — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Vista Turbine
Vista Turbine
5/16/2022Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 30Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mes Kerman51%
×Draw33%
Vista Turbine17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.11
Vista Turbine
0.50

Mes Kerman creates 122% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.04
Vista Turbine
0.47

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Vista Turbine
1.18

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Vista Turbine+0.00on par

Total goals

78%Under
  • Under78
  • Over22

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

74%No
  • No74
  • Yes26

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Vista Turbine →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–020%
0–110%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
80%20%1.5
48%52%2.5
22%78%3.5
8%92%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
83%
Mes Kerman or Vista Turbine
67%
Draw or Vista Turbine
49%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
22%
Vista Turbine wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
67%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
30%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
10%
Vista Turbine 1+ goals
39%
Vista Turbine 2+ goals
9%
Vista Turbine 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
75%
Vista Turbine (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.53 · 98 matches

Vista Turbine away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.04 + Vista Turbine defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.11

Vista Turbine attack 0.47 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
51%
level
33%
Vista Turbine scores more
17%

Mes Kerman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 1–0 Vista Turbine

Mes Kerman beat Vista Turbine 1-0 in Azadegan League on May 16, 2022.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.