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Mes Kerman vs Shahrdari Tabriz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
3 – 0
Shahrdari Tabriz
Shahrdari Tabriz
12/12/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Kerman68%
×Draw22%
Shahrdari Tabriz11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.80
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.55

Mes Kerman creates 227% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
Shahrdari Tabriz
0.56

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Shahrdari Tabriz
2.50

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Shahrdari Tabriz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Shahrdari Tabriz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–15%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–19%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
89%
Mes Kerman or Shahrdari Tabriz
78%
Draw or Shahrdari Tabriz
32%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
40%
Shahrdari Tabriz wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
83%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
54%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
27%
Shahrdari Tabriz 1+ goals
42%
Shahrdari Tabriz 2+ goals
11%
Shahrdari Tabriz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
86%
Shahrdari Tabriz (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Shahrdari Tabriz away — creates 0.56, concedes 2.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Shahrdari Tabriz defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.80

Shahrdari Tabriz attack 0.56 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
68%
level
22%
Shahrdari Tabriz scores more
11%

Mes Kerman at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 3–0 Shahrdari Tabriz

Mes Kerman beat Shahrdari Tabriz 3-0 in Azadegan League on December 12, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.