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Mes Kerman vs Shahrdari Astara — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Shahrdari Astara
Shahrdari Astara
4/15/2024Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 27Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Mes Kerman60%
×Draw28%
Shahrdari Astara12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.39
Shahrdari Astara
0.47

Mes Kerman creates 196% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 84 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.07
Shahrdari Astara
0.40

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.54
Shahrdari Astara
1.71

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Shahrdari Astara+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Shahrdari Astara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–110%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
55%45%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
88%
Mes Kerman or Shahrdari Astara
72%
Draw or Shahrdari Astara
40%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
30%
Shahrdari Astara wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
75%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
40%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
16%
Shahrdari Astara 1+ goals
37%
Shahrdari Astara 2+ goals
8%
Shahrdari Astara 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
83%
Shahrdari Astara (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
18%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.54 · 113 matches

Shahrdari Astara away — creates 0.40, concedes 1.71 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.07 + Shahrdari Astara defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.39

Shahrdari Astara attack 0.40 + Mes Kerman defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
60%
level
28%
Shahrdari Astara scores more
12%

Mes Kerman at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 2–0 Shahrdari Astara

Mes Kerman beat Shahrdari Astara 2-0 in Azadegan League on April 15, 2024.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.