Mes Kerman 2–0 Rayka Babol: Result & Stats

Mes Kerman

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Rayka Babol

1/1/2022

Azadegan League · Round 12Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mes Kerman50%

×Draw30%

Rayka Babol20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes KermanExpected goals in this matchRayka Babol

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

0.67

Mes Kerman

1.24

Rayka Babol

0.67

Mes Kerman creates 85% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 51 away

1.10

creates per match

0.80

0.53

allows per match

1.37

creates per match

Mes Kerman

1.10

Rayka Babol

0.80

allows per match

Mes Kerman

0.53

Rayka Babol

1.37

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Rayka Babol →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw

80%

Mes Kerman or Rayka Babol

70%

Draw or Rayka Babol

50%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

23%

Rayka Babol wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

71%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

35%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

13%

Rayka Babol 1+ goals

49%

Rayka Babol 2+ goals

15%

Rayka Babol 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

71%

Rayka Babol (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.37 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Rayka Babol defence 1.37 → ÷2 → 1.24

Rayka Babol attack 0.80 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Mes Kerman scores more

50%

level

30%

Rayka Babol scores more

20%

Mes Kerman at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff