Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Kerman vs Rayka Babol — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 0
Rayka Babol
Rayka Babol
8/22/2019Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 2Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Mes Kerman48%
×Draw31%
Rayka Babol21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.19
Rayka Babol
0.68

Mes Kerman creates 75% more chances

Season form · 98 home / 50 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.04
Rayka Babol
0.82

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Rayka Babol
1.34

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Rayka Babol+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Rayka Babol →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
79%
Mes Kerman or Rayka Babol
69%
Draw or Rayka Babol
52%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
21%
Rayka Babol wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
70%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
33%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
12%
Rayka Babol 1+ goals
49%
Rayka Babol 2+ goals
15%
Rayka Babol 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
70%
Rayka Babol (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.04, concedes 0.53 · 98 matches

Rayka Babol away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.34 · 50 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.04 + Rayka Babol defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.19

Rayka Babol attack 0.82 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
48%
level
31%
Rayka Babol scores more
21%

Mes Kerman at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Rayka Babol

Mes Kerman beat Rayka Babol 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 22, 2019.

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.