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Mes Kerman vs Pars Jonoubi JAM — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pars Jonoubi JAM
Pars Jonoubi JAM
12/6/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Mes Kerman45%
×Draw32%
Pars Jonoubi JAM23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.11
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.71

Mes Kerman creates 56% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 100 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
Pars Jonoubi JAM
0.89

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Pars Jonoubi JAM
1.12

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Pars Jonoubi JAM+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Pars Jonoubi JAM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
77%
Mes Kerman or Pars Jonoubi JAM
68%
Draw or Pars Jonoubi JAM
55%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
19%
Pars Jonoubi JAM wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
67%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
30%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
10%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 1+ goals
51%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 2+ goals
16%
Pars Jonoubi JAM 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
66%
Pars Jonoubi JAM (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Pars Jonoubi JAM away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.12 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Pars Jonoubi JAM defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.11

Pars Jonoubi JAM attack 0.89 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
45%
level
32%
Pars Jonoubi JAM scores more
23%

Mes Kerman at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 0–0 Pars Jonoubi JAM

Mes Kerman and Pars Jonoubi JAM drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on December 6, 2023.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.