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Mes Kerman vs Mes Soongoun — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mes Soongoun
Mes Soongoun
12/20/2023Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 17Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Mes Kerman53%
×Draw32%
Mes Soongoun16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.17
Mes Soongoun
0.50

Mes Kerman creates 134% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 51 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
Mes Soongoun
0.47

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Mes Soongoun
1.24

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Mes Soongoun+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Mes Soongoun →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–19%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–022%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–16%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (22%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
84%
Mes Kerman or Mes Soongoun
68%
Draw or Mes Soongoun
47%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
23%
Mes Soongoun wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
69%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
33%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
11%
Mes Soongoun 1+ goals
39%
Mes Soongoun 2+ goals
9%
Mes Soongoun 3+ goals
1%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
77%
Mes Soongoun (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
16%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Mes Soongoun away — creates 0.47, concedes 1.24 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Mes Soongoun defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.17

Mes Soongoun attack 0.47 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
53%
level
32%
Mes Soongoun scores more
16%

Mes Kerman at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Mes Soongoun

Mes Kerman beat Mes Soongoun 1-0 in Azadegan League on December 20, 2023.

The match was played at Imam Ali Stadium in Sirjan.