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Mes Kerman vs Kheybar Khorramabad — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
2 – 0
Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
M. Safia 78'
B. Rashid Farrokhi 42'
2/19/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 15Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Mes Kerman36%
×Draw34%
Kheybar Khorramabad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
0.90
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.77

Mes Kerman creates 17% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 67 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Kheybar Khorramabad
1.04

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Kheybar Khorramabad
0.78

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Under
  • Under77
  • Over23

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Kheybar Khorramabad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–019%
0–114%
0–26%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–16%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (19%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
81%19%1.5
50%50%2.5
23%77%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
71%
Mes Kerman or Kheybar Khorramabad
66%
Draw or Kheybar Khorramabad
64%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
13%
Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
59%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
23%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
6%
Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
54%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
18%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
56%
Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Kheybar Khorramabad away — creates 1.04, concedes 0.78 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.90

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.04 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
36%
level
34%
Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
29%

Mes Kerman at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
B. Rashid Farrokhi
78'
M. Safia

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mes Kerman 2 – 0 Kheybar Khorramabad

Mes Kerman beat Kheybar Khorramabad 2-0 in Azadegan League on February 19, 2021.

Goals: B. Rashid Farrokhi (42'), M. Safia (78').

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.