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Kheybar Khorramabad vs Mes Kerman — Azadegan League 2018

Kheybar Khorramabad
Kheybar Khorramabad
FT
0 – 2
Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
7/4/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 32Takhti Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Kheybar Khorramabad47%
×Draw30%
Mes Kerman22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.19
Mes Kerman
0.72

Kheybar Khorramabad creates 65% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 115 away

creates per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
1.67
Mes Kerman
0.78

allows per match

Kheybar Khorramabad
0.66
Mes Kerman
0.70

finishing

Kheybar Khorramabad+0.00on par
Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kheybar Khorramabad ↓

Mes Kerman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Kheybar Khorramabad or draw
78%
Kheybar Khorramabad or Mes Kerman
70%
Draw or Mes Kerman
53%

Winning margin

Kheybar Khorramabad wins by 2+
21%
Mes Kerman wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kheybar Khorramabad 1+ goals
70%
Kheybar Khorramabad 2+ goals
33%
Kheybar Khorramabad 3+ goals
12%
Mes Kerman 1+ goals
51%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
16%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Kheybar Khorramabad (draw refunded)
68%
Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kheybar Khorramabad at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.66 · 67 matches

Mes Kerman away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.70 · 115 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kheybar Khorramabad attack 1.67 + Mes Kerman defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 1.19

Mes Kerman attack 0.78 + Kheybar Khorramabad defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.72

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kheybar Khorramabad scores more
47%
level
30%
Mes Kerman scores more
22%

Kheybar Khorramabad at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kheybar Khorramabad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kheybar Khorramabad vs Mes Kerman

Mes Kerman beat Kheybar Khorramabad 2-0 in Azadegan League on July 4, 2021.

The match was played at Takhti Stadium in Khorramabad.