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Mes Kerman vs Havadar — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
1 – 3
Havadar
Havadar
M. Safia 63'
Unknown 75', 60'
A. Kianifar 35'
7/12/2021Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Mes Kerman38%
×Draw37%
Havadar26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
0.85
Havadar
0.64

Mes Kerman creates 33% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 32 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Havadar
0.78

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Havadar
0.69

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Havadar+0.00on par

Total goals

81%Under
  • Under81
  • Over19

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Havadar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–114%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
44%56%2.5
19%81%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
74%
Mes Kerman or Havadar
63%
Draw or Havadar
62%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
13%
Havadar wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
57%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
21%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
5%
Havadar 1+ goals
47%
Havadar 2+ goals
14%
Havadar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
60%
Havadar (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
15%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Havadar away — creates 0.78, concedes 0.69 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Havadar defence 0.69 → ÷2 → 0.85

Havadar attack 0.78 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
38%
level
37%
Havadar scores more
26%

Mes Kerman at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

35'
A. Kianifar
60'
63'
M. Safia
75'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Havadar

Havadar beat Mes Kerman 3-1 in Azadegan League on July 12, 2021.

Goals: A. Kianifar (35'), ? (60', 75'), M. Safia (63').

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.