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Mes Kerman vs Fard Alborz — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fard Alborz
Fard Alborz
10/25/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Mes Kerman31%
×Draw41%
Fard Alborz28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
0.65
Fard Alborz
0.60

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 96 home / 17 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Fard Alborz
0.71

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Fard Alborz
0.29

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Fard Alborz+0.00on par

Total goals

87%Under
  • Under87
  • Over13

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

78%No
  • No78
  • Yes22

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Fard Alborz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–029%
0–117%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–06%
2–14%
2–21%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (29%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
71%29%1.5
36%64%2.5
13%87%3.5
4%96%4.5
1%99%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
72%
Mes Kerman or Fard Alborz
59%
Draw or Fard Alborz
69%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
9%
Fard Alborz wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
48%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
14%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
3%
Fard Alborz 1+ goals
45%
Fard Alborz 2+ goals
12%
Fard Alborz 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
53%
Fard Alborz (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
10%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Fard Alborz away — creates 0.71, concedes 0.29 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Fard Alborz defence 0.29 → ÷2 → 0.65

Fard Alborz attack 0.71 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 31%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
31%
level
41%
Fard Alborz scores more
28%

Mes Kerman at 31% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 31% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Fard Alborz

Mes Kerman and Fard Alborz drew 0-0 in Azadegan League on October 25, 2025.