Mes Kerman 0–1 Fajr Sepasi: Result & Stats

Mes Kerman

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fajr Sepasi

10/2/2023

Azadegan League · Round 5Imam Ali Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Mes Kerman38%

×Draw33%

Fajr Sepasi28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Mes KermanExpected goals in this matchFajr Sepasi

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

0.79

Mes Kerman

0.97

Fajr Sepasi

0.79

Mes Kerman creates 23% more chances

Season form · 113 home / 98 away

1.07

creates per match

1.03

0.54

allows per match

0.86

creates per match

Mes Kerman

1.07

Fajr Sepasi

1.03

allows per match

Mes Kerman

0.54

Fajr Sepasi

0.86

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par

Fajr Sepasi+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Fajr Sepasi →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–114%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–16%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw

72%

Mes Kerman or Fajr Sepasi

67%

Draw or Fajr Sepasi

62%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+

14%

Fajr Sepasi wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals

62%

Mes Kerman 2+ goals

25%

Mes Kerman 3+ goals

7%

Fajr Sepasi 1+ goals

55%

Fajr Sepasi 2+ goals

19%

Fajr Sepasi 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)

57%

Fajr Sepasi (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.07, concedes 0.54 · 113 matches

Fajr Sepasi away — creates 1.03, concedes 0.86 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.07 + Fajr Sepasi defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.97

Fajr Sepasi attack 1.03 + Mes Kerman defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Mes Kerman scores more

38%

level

33%

Fajr Sepasi scores more

28%

Mes Kerman at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff