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Mes Kerman vs Damash Gilanian — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Damash Gilanian
Damash Gilanian
9/30/2025Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 6Mes Kerman Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Mes Kerman59%
×Draw28%
Damash Gilanian14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
1.38
Damash Gilanian
0.51

Mes Kerman creates 171% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 65 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.10
Damash Gilanian
0.49

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.53
Damash Gilanian
1.65

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Damash Gilanian+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

70%No
  • No70
  • Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Damash Gilanian →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–18%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
86%
Mes Kerman or Damash Gilanian
72%
Draw or Damash Gilanian
41%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
29%
Damash Gilanian wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
75%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
40%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
16%
Damash Gilanian 1+ goals
40%
Damash Gilanian 2+ goals
9%
Damash Gilanian 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
81%
Damash Gilanian (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.53 · 115 matches

Damash Gilanian away — creates 0.49, concedes 1.65 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.10 + Damash Gilanian defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.38

Damash Gilanian attack 0.49 + Mes Kerman defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
59%
level
28%
Damash Gilanian scores more
14%

Mes Kerman at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Mes Kerman vs Damash Gilanian

Mes Kerman beat Damash Gilanian 2-1 in Azadegan League on September 30, 2025.

The match was played at Mes Kerman Stadium in Kerman.