Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Mes Kerman vs Aluminium Arak — Azadegan League 2018

Mes Kerman
Mes Kerman
FT
0 – 1
Aluminium Arak
Aluminium Arak
H. Pakdel 7'
8/8/2020Azadegan LeagueAzadegan League · Round 33Shahid Bahonar Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Mes Kerman34%
×Draw37%
Aluminium Arak28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Mes Kerman
0.78
Aluminium Arak
0.68

Mes Kerman creates 15% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 20 away

creates per match

Mes Kerman
1.01
Aluminium Arak
0.85

allows per match

Mes Kerman
0.50
Aluminium Arak
0.55

finishing

Mes Kerman+0.00on par
Aluminium Arak+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Under
  • Under82
  • Over18

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

73%No
  • No73
  • Yes27

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Mes Kerman ↓

Aluminium Arak →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–023%
0–116%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–018%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–15%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–11%
3–20%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (23%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
77%23%1.5
43%57%2.5
18%82%3.5
6%94%4.5
2%98%

Double chance

Mes Kerman or draw
72%
Mes Kerman or Aluminium Arak
63%
Draw or Aluminium Arak
66%

Winning margin

Mes Kerman wins by 2+
11%
Aluminium Arak wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Mes Kerman 1+ goals
54%
Mes Kerman 2+ goals
18%
Mes Kerman 3+ goals
4%
Aluminium Arak 1+ goals
49%
Aluminium Arak 2+ goals
15%
Aluminium Arak 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Mes Kerman (draw refunded)
55%
Aluminium Arak (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
14%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Mes Kerman at home — creates 1.01, concedes 0.50 · 96 matches

Aluminium Arak away — creates 0.85, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Mes Kerman attack 1.01 + Aluminium Arak defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.78

Aluminium Arak attack 0.85 + Mes Kerman defence 0.50 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 34%?"

Mes Kerman scores more
34%
level
37%
Aluminium Arak scores more
28%

Mes Kerman at 34% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 34% does not mean "Mes Kerman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'
H. Pakdel
28'
N. Doroudi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Azadegan League: Mes Kerman 0–1 Aluminium Arak

Aluminium Arak beat Mes Kerman 1-0 in Azadegan League on August 8, 2020.

Goals: H. Pakdel (7').

The match was played at Shahid Bahonar Stadium in Kerman.