Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Merw vs Şagadam — Ýokary Liga 2020

Merw
Merw
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Şagadam
Şagadam
8/7/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 15Mary Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Merw42%
×Draw26%
Şagadam32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merw
1.41
Şagadam
1.19

Merw creates 18% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

creates per match

Merw
1.24
Şagadam
0.98

allows per match

Merw
1.39
Şagadam
1.58

finishing

Merw+0.00on par
Şagadam+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Şagadam →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Merw or draw
68%
Merw or Şagadam
74%
Draw or Şagadam
58%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+
20%
Şagadam wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals
76%
Merw 2+ goals
41%
Merw 3+ goals
17%
Şagadam 1+ goals
70%
Şagadam 2+ goals
33%
Şagadam 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)
57%
Şagadam (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Şagadam away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.58 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.24 + Şagadam defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.41

Şagadam attack 0.98 + Merw defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Merw scores more
42%
level
26%
Şagadam scores more
32%

Merw at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Merw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Merw 0–1 Şagadam

Şagadam beat Merw 1-0 in Ýokary Liga on August 7, 2025.

The match was played at Mary Stadiony in Mary.