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Merw vs Ravshan — AFC Cup 2018

Merw
Merw
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Ravshan
Ravshan
Y. Dovletgeldiyev 67'
E. Mwanengo 43'
11/30/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Aşgabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merw51%
×Draw27%
Ravshan22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merw
1.43
Ravshan
0.85

Merw creates 68% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Merw
1.00
Ravshan
0.71

allows per match

Merw
1.00
Ravshan
1.86

finishing

Merw+0.00on par
Ravshan+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Ravshan →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Merw or draw
78%
Merw or Ravshan
73%
Draw or Ravshan
49%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+
25%
Ravshan wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals
76%
Merw 2+ goals
42%
Merw 3+ goals
17%
Ravshan 1+ goals
57%
Ravshan 2+ goals
21%
Ravshan 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)
69%
Ravshan (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Ravshan away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.00 + Ravshan defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Ravshan attack 0.71 + Merw defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Merw scores more
51%
level
27%
Ravshan scores more
22%

Merw at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Merw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27
S. InoyatulloRavshanRavshan · M
7.9

Match Events

43'
E. Mwanengo↳ R. Rakhmatzoda
46'
M. Nurnazarov← M. Nazzyyev
67'
Y. Dovletgeldiyev↳ I. Sekov
74'
M. Kiyomidinov← A. Safarov
83'
M. Ýakşiýew← I. Sekov
88'
S. Ovmadov← A. Orazmuhammedov
88'
B. Khurshed← M. Naskov
88'
K. Khatamov← S. Mukhammadsharifi
90'
A. Saparov← Y. Dovletgeldiyev

Possession

49%Merw

Shots

7Merw

Pass accuracy

49%Merw

Statistics

MerwRavshan
Overview
49%Possession51%
7Total Shots12
3Corners6
10Fouls14
Shots
7Total Shots12
2On Target4
2Off Target7
3Blocked1
6Inside Box7
1Outside Box5
Passing
49%Possession51%
403Total Passes427
304Accurate Passes327
75%Pass Accuracy77%
Goalkeeping
3Saves1
Discipline
10Fouls14
4Offsides1

Match Recap: Merw vs Ravshan

Merw and Ravshan drew 1-1 in AFC Cup on November 30, 2023.

Goals: E. Mwanengo (43'), Y. Dovletgeldiyev (67').

Ravshan controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 7.

The match was played at Aşgabat Stadiony in Ashgabat.