Merw 2–1 Köpetdag Aşgabat: Result & Stats

Merw

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Köpetdag Aşgabat

5/2/2026

Ýokary Liga · Round 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Merw45%

×Draw25%

Köpetdag Aşgabat30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MerwExpected goals in this matchKöpetdag Aşgabat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

1.24

Merw

1.56

Köpetdag Aşgabat

1.24

Merw creates 26% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 86 away

1.24

creates per match

1.09

1.39

allows per match

1.87

creates per match

Merw

1.24

Köpetdag Aşgabat

1.09

allows per match

Merw

1.39

Köpetdag Aşgabat

1.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merw+0.00on par

Köpetdag Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Köpetdag Aşgabat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Merw or draw

70%

Merw or Köpetdag Aşgabat

75%

Draw or Köpetdag Aşgabat

55%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+

23%

Köpetdag Aşgabat wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals

79%

Merw 2+ goals

46%

Merw 3+ goals

21%

Köpetdag Aşgabat 1+ goals

71%

Köpetdag Aşgabat 2+ goals

35%

Köpetdag Aşgabat 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)

60%

Köpetdag Aşgabat (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Köpetdag Aşgabat away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.87 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.24 + Köpetdag Aşgabat defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.56

Köpetdag Aşgabat attack 1.09 + Merw defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Merw scores more

45%

level

25%

Köpetdag Aşgabat scores more

30%

Merw at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Merw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff