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Merw vs Aşgabat — Ýokary Liga 2020

Merw
Merw
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Aşgabat
Aşgabat
5/9/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 10Mary Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 80+ matches

Merw48%
×Draw25%
Aşgabat27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merw
1.63
Aşgabat
1.15

Merw creates 42% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 80 away

creates per match

Merw
1.24
Aşgabat
0.91

allows per match

Merw
1.39
Aşgabat
2.02

finishing

Merw+0.00on par
Aşgabat+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Aşgabat →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Merw or draw
73%
Merw or Aşgabat
75%
Draw or Aşgabat
52%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+
25%
Aşgabat wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals
80%
Merw 2+ goals
48%
Merw 3+ goals
22%
Aşgabat 1+ goals
68%
Aşgabat 2+ goals
32%
Aşgabat 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)
64%
Aşgabat (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Aşgabat away — creates 0.91, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.24 + Aşgabat defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.63

Aşgabat attack 0.91 + Merw defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Merw scores more
48%
level
25%
Aşgabat scores more
27%

Merw at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Merw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Merw 2 – 0 Aşgabat

Merw beat Aşgabat 2-0 in Ýokary Liga on May 9, 2025.

The match was played at Mary Stadiony in Mary.