Merw 1–1 Altyn Asyr: Result & Stats | Ýokary Liga

Merw

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Altyn Asyr

12/24/2023

Ýokary Liga · Round 27Mary Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Merw26%

×Draw25%

Altyn Asyr49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MerwExpected goals in this matchAltyn Asyr

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.59

Merw

1.08

Altyn Asyr

1.59

Altyn Asyr creates 47% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 83 away

1.24

creates per match

1.80

1.39

allows per match

0.92

creates per match

Merw

1.24

Altyn Asyr

1.80

allows per match

Merw

1.39

Altyn Asyr

0.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merw+0.00on par

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Altyn Asyr →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Merw or draw

51%

Merw or Altyn Asyr

75%

Draw or Altyn Asyr

74%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+

10%

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals

66%

Merw 2+ goals

29%

Merw 3+ goals

10%

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals

80%

Altyn Asyr 2+ goals

47%

Altyn Asyr 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)

34%

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.39 · 83 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.80, concedes 0.92 · 83 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.24 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.08

Altyn Asyr attack 1.80 + Merw defence 1.39 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Merw scores more

26%

level

25%

Altyn Asyr scores more

49%

Altyn Asyr at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff