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Altyn Asyr vs Merw — Ýokary Liga 2020

Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Merw
Merw
5/13/2025Ýokary LigaÝokary Liga · Round 14Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Altyn Asyr70%
×Draw18%
Merw12%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Altyn Asyr
2.32
Merw
0.83

Altyn Asyr creates 180% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 84 away

creates per match

Altyn Asyr
2.52
Merw
0.73

allows per match

Altyn Asyr
0.93
Merw
2.12

finishing

Altyn Asyr+0.00on par
Merw+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Altyn Asyr ↓

Merw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Altyn Asyr or draw
88%
Altyn Asyr or Merw
82%
Draw or Merw
30%

Winning margin

Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
47%
Merw wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
90%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
67%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
40%
Merw 1+ goals
56%
Merw 2+ goals
20%
Merw 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
86%
Merw (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Altyn Asyr at home — creates 2.52, concedes 0.93 · 83 matches

Merw away — creates 0.73, concedes 2.12 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Altyn Asyr attack 2.52 + Merw defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.32

Merw attack 0.73 + Altyn Asyr defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Altyn Asyr scores more
70%
level
18%
Merw scores more
12%

Altyn Asyr at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Altyn Asyr will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ýokary Liga: Altyn Asyr 2–0 Merw

Altyn Asyr beat Merw 2-0 in Ýokary Liga on May 13, 2025.

The match was played at Sport toplumy stadiony Büzmeýin in Ashgabat.