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Merw vs Altyn Asyr — AFC Cup 2018

Merw
Merw
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Altyn Asyr
Altyn Asyr
10/26/2023AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 3Aşgabat Stadiony

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merw40%
×Draw26%
Altyn Asyr34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merw
1.43
Altyn Asyr
1.29

Merw creates 11% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 21 away

creates per match

Merw
1.00
Altyn Asyr
1.57

allows per match

Merw
1.00
Altyn Asyr
1.86

finishing

Merw+0.00on par
Altyn Asyr+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merw ↓

Altyn Asyr →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Merw or draw
66%
Merw or Altyn Asyr
74%
Draw or Altyn Asyr
60%

Winning margin

Merw wins by 2+
19%
Altyn Asyr wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Merw 1+ goals
76%
Merw 2+ goals
42%
Merw 3+ goals
17%
Altyn Asyr 1+ goals
72%
Altyn Asyr 2+ goals
37%
Altyn Asyr 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Merw (draw refunded)
54%
Altyn Asyr (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merw at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 4 matches

Altyn Asyr away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.86 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merw attack 1.00 + Altyn Asyr defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.43

Altyn Asyr attack 1.57 + Merw defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Merw scores more
40%
level
26%
Altyn Asyr scores more
34%

Merw at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Merw will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Merw 1–2 Altyn Asyr

Altyn Asyr beat Merw 2-1 in AFC Cup on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Aşgabat Stadiony in Ashgabat.