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Merthyr Town vs Yeovil Town — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Yeovil Town
Yeovil Town
S. Pearson 60', 45+4'
S. Walker 80'
M. Obeng 71'
7/14/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merthyr Town31%
×Draw20%
Yeovil Town49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merthyr Town
1.88
Yeovil Town
2.38

Yeovil Town creates 27% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Merthyr Town
2.50
Yeovil Town
3.25

allows per match

Merthyr Town
1.50
Yeovil Town
1.25

finishing

Merthyr Town+0.00on par
Yeovil Town+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merthyr Town ↓

Yeovil Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–24%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–03%
1–16%
1–28%
1–36%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–36%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Merthyr Town or draw
51%
Merthyr Town or Yeovil Town
80%
Draw or Yeovil Town
69%

Winning margin

Merthyr Town wins by 2+
16%
Yeovil Town wins by 2+
30%

Team goals

Merthyr Town 1+ goals
85%
Merthyr Town 2+ goals
56%
Merthyr Town 3+ goals
29%
Yeovil Town 1+ goals
91%
Yeovil Town 2+ goals
68%
Yeovil Town 3+ goals
42%

Draw no bet

Merthyr Town (draw refunded)
39%
Yeovil Town (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merthyr Town at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Yeovil Town away — creates 3.25, concedes 1.25 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merthyr Town attack 2.50 + Yeovil Town defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.88

Yeovil Town attack 3.25 + Merthyr Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Merthyr Town scores more
31%
level
20%
Yeovil Town scores more
49%

Yeovil Town at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Yeovil Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45+4'
S. Pearson
60'
S. Pearson
71'
M. Obeng
80'
S. Walker

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merthyr Town vs Yeovil Town

Merthyr Town and Yeovil Town drew 2-2 in Friendlies Clubs on July 14, 2026.

Goals: S. Pearson (45+4', 60'), M. Obeng (71'), S. Walker (80').