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Merthyr Town vs Forest Green — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Merthyr Town
Merthyr Town
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Forest Green
Forest Green
Trialist 23'
T. Conteh 26'
K. Ajayi 5'
7/18/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Merthyr Town44%
×Draw20%
Forest Green35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Merthyr Town
2.25
Forest Green
2.00

Merthyr Town creates 13% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

creates per match

Merthyr Town
2.50
Forest Green
2.50

allows per match

Merthyr Town
1.50
Forest Green
2.00

finishing

Merthyr Town+0.00on par
Forest Green+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merthyr Town ↓

Forest Green →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–03%
1–17%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–34%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Merthyr Town or draw
65%
Merthyr Town or Forest Green
80%
Draw or Forest Green
56%

Winning margin

Merthyr Town wins by 2+
26%
Forest Green wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Merthyr Town 1+ goals
89%
Merthyr Town 2+ goals
65%
Merthyr Town 3+ goals
39%
Forest Green 1+ goals
86%
Forest Green 2+ goals
59%
Forest Green 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Merthyr Town (draw refunded)
56%
Forest Green (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merthyr Town at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Forest Green away — creates 2.50, concedes 2.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merthyr Town attack 2.50 + Forest Green defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.25

Forest Green attack 2.50 + Merthyr Town defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Merthyr Town scores more
44%
level
20%
Forest Green scores more
35%

Merthyr Town at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Merthyr Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
K. Ajayi
23'
Trialist
26'
T. Conteh

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Merthyr Town vs Forest Green

Forest Green beat Merthyr Town 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 18, 2026.

Goals: K. Ajayi (5'), Trialist (23'), T. Conteh (26').