Merstham 1–2 Sheppey United: Result & Stats

Merstham

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Sheppey United

3/7/2026

League #57

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Merstham60%

×Draw18%

Sheppey United21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

MersthamExpected goals in this matchSheppey United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.62

1.53

Merstham

2.62

Sheppey United

1.53

Merstham creates 71% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 3 away

1.90

creates per match

1.67

1.40

allows per match

3.33

creates per match

Merstham

1.90

Sheppey United

1.67

allows per match

Merstham

1.40

Sheppey United

3.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Merstham+0.00on par

Sheppey United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over78
Under22

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Merstham ↓

Sheppey United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–16%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

92%8%2.5

78%22%3.5

59%41%4.5

39%61%

Double chance

Merstham or draw

79%

Merstham or Sheppey United

82%

Draw or Sheppey United

40%

Winning margin

Merstham wins by 2+

40%

Sheppey United wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Merstham 1+ goals

93%

Merstham 2+ goals

73%

Merstham 3+ goals

48%

Sheppey United 1+ goals

78%

Sheppey United 2+ goals

45%

Sheppey United 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Merstham (draw refunded)

74%

Sheppey United (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Merstham at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.40 · 10 matches

Sheppey United away — creates 1.67, concedes 3.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Merstham attack 1.90 + Sheppey United defence 3.33 → ÷2 → 2.62

Sheppey United attack 1.67 + Merstham defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Merstham scores more

60%

level

18%

Sheppey United scores more

21%

Merstham at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Merstham will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff